← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 69% | 73% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
| Burnley win | 13% | 9% | 7.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Burnley −1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Josh Cullen · Man United |
| 55' | ⚽ | Lyle Foster · Burnley |
| 57' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Man United |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jaidon Anthony · Burnley |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 89' | 🟨 | Loum Tchaouna · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Laurent · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lyle Foster · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaidon Anthony · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1695.02 | 1658.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.01 | 14.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 68.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | 0.56 |
| solidity v1 | 1.02 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.07 | 27.15 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 36.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.74 |