← Premier League 2025-26 · Mon, Aug 25, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 41% | 42% | 2.36 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 33% | 29% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.74 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle +0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Liverpool +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 55% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 45% | 2.42 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Ryan Gravenberch · Liverpool |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
| 35' | ⚽ | Ryan Gravenberch · Liverpool |
| 44' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 45' | 🟥 | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 46' | ⚽ | Hugo Ekitiké · Liverpool |
| 47' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 57' | ⚽ | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 87' | 🟨 | Conor Bradley · Liverpool |
| 88' | ⚽ | William Osula · Newcastle |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| ⚽ |
| Rio Ngumoha · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1393.00 | 450.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1744.77 | 1891.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.83 | -37.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 9.31 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | 1.27 |
| solidity v1 | 1.15 | -1.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.68 | 27.54 |
| state index | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 192.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.68 | 2.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |