← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Burnley win | 41% | 31% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 29% | 37% | 3.47 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sunderland −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Burnley −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand