← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 62% | 55% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 34% | 4.93 | value: +65% |
| Tottenham win | 17% | 12% | 6.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Man City −1 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Tottenham −1 | 48% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 64% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 36% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand