← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 63% | 76% | 1.53 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 22% | 13% | 4.70 | fair |
| Wolves win | 15% | 10% | 6.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Man City +1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Wolves +1 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 49% | 2.37 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand