← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, May 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 51% | 52% | 1.92 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 25% | 23% | 3.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Tottenham +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 68% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 32% | 2.72 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Dominic Solanke · Tottenham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jack Hinshelwood · Brighton |
| 58' | 🟨 | Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jack Hinshelwood · Brighton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · Brighton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Matt O'Riley · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Gómez · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days |
| 694.00 |
| 358.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1683.56 | 1686.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.51 | 24.95 |
| eye test v1 | -1.55 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| league points | 38.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | 0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -0.25 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 24.84 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 82.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.44 |