← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, May 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 57% | 52% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.37 | fair |
| Man United win | 21% | 27% | 4.82 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Man United +0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 74% | 1.60 | value: +18% |
| Under | 40% | 26% | 2.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Amad Diallo · Man United |
| 45' | 🟥 | Emiliano Martínez · Aston Villa |
| 73' | 🟨 | Pau Torres · Aston Villa |
| 76' | ⚽ | Amad Diallo · Man United |
| 80' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Eriksen · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 205.00 | 936.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 4.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1686.19 | 1757.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.76 | 38.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.85 |
| league points | 39.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 8.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 27.37 |
| state index | 0.04 | 1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 109.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.45 |