← Premier League 2024-25 · Tue, May 20, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 72% | 61% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 18% | 5.80 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 11% | 21% | 8.90 | value: +89% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Man City −1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 56% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 44% | 2.66 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Omar Marmoush · Man City |
| 36' | 🟨 | Dean Huijsen · Bournemouth |
| 38' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 44' | 🟨 | Julian Araujo · Bournemouth |
| 67' | 🟥 | Mateo Kovačić · Man City |
| 68' | 🟨 | Éderson · Man City |
| 73' | 🟥 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 89' | ⚽ | Nico González · Man City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Daniel Jebbison · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 3245.00 | 689.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.21 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1865.74 | 1674.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.63 | 15.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 65.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 10.21 | 10.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.86 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 1.26 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 25.72 |
| state index | 1.57 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 306.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 0.90 |