← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, May 18, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Arsenal win | 50% | 49% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.79 | value: +19% |
| Newcastle win | 25% | 19% | 3.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Arsenal −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Newcastle −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 62% | 1.74 | value: +8% |
| Under | 45% | 38% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand