← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, May 18, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Everton win | 67% | 71% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.95 | fair |
| Southampton win | 13% | 13% | 7.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Southampton −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Everton −1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 66% | 1.78 | value: +17% |
| Under | 45% | 34% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand