← Premier League 2024-25 · Fri, May 16, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 62% | 58% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.70 | value: +4% |
| Man United win | 17% | 20% | 5.75 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Man United −1 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 66% | 1.57 | value: +4% |
| Under | 38% | 34% | 2.58 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 47' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 65' | 🟨 | Noussair Mazraoui · Man United |
| 69' | 🟨 | Amad Diallo · Man United |
| 71' | ⚽ | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ayden Heaven · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Ugarte · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 349.00 | 196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1957.30 | 1855.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.10 | 8.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| league points | 63.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 5.34 | 5.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 1.37 |
| solidity v1 | 0.65 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.38 | 24.75 |
| state index | 1.36 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 262.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 2.21 |