← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 43% | 47% | 2.24 | value: +5% |
| Arsenal win | 30% | 32% | 3.22 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Liverpool −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 51% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 49% | 2.32 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 21' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mikel Merino · Arsenal |
| 43' | 🟨 | Myles Lewis-Skelly · Arsenal |
| 47' | ⚽ | Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal |
| 60' | 🟨 | Conor Bradley · Liverpool |
| 70' | ⚽ | Mikel Merino · Arsenal |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mikel Merino · Arsenal |
| 79' | 🟥 | Mikel Merino · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 344.00 | 861.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 4.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1909.79 | 1861.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.90 | -31.68 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 82.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.34 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | 1.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.86 | 26.19 |
| state index | 1.18 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 284.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.58 |