← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 01:15 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 68% | 74% | 1.40 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.19 | fair |
| Leicester win | 13% | 7% | 7.91 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Leicester −1.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 69% | 1.67 | value: +15% |
| Under | 42% | 31% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Conor Coady · Leicester |
| 25' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 39' | 🟨 | James Justin · Leicester |
| 56' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 58' | 🟨 | Luke Thomas · Leicester |
| 60' | 🟨 | Morato · Nott'm Forest |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ola Aina · Nott'm Forest |
| 73' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · Nott'm Forest |
| 79' | 🟨 | Facundo Buonanotte · Leicester |
| 81' | ⚽ | Facundo Buonanotte · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 527.00 | 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1677.17 | 1445.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.27 | -0.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 61.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 5.76 | 7.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.97 | -1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 27.16 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 35.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 2.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.96 |