← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 43% | 44% | 2.29 | fair |
| Chelsea win | 32% | 39% | 3.10 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Newcastle −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 70% | 1.56 | value: +9% |
| Under | 38% | 30% | 2.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Sandro Tonali · Newcastle |
| 36' | 🟥 | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 53' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jacob Murphy · Newcastle |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 89' | 🟨 | Emil Krafth · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Levi Colwill · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days |
| 1287.00 |
| 344.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1748.62 | 1804.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.41 | 50.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.60 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 63.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 6.92 | 2.67 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | 1.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 28.80 | 22.78 |
| state index | 1.23 | 1.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 400.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.68 |