← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 63% | 55% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 28% | 4.84 | value: +36% |
| Ipswich win | 16% | 17% | 5.83 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich +1.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Brentford +1.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 53% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 47% | 2.87 | value: +35% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Jack Taylor · Ipswich |
| 17' | 🟨 | Christian Nørgaard · Brentford |
| 18' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 70' | 🟨 | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 83' | 🟨 | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 83' | 🟨 | Michael Kayode · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yehor Yarmoliuk · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.90 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 1256.00 | 2413.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1697.05 | 1889.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.22 | 48.62 |
| eye test v1 | -1.28 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| league points | 22.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 31.80 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.49 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.38 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -1.83 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 25.66 |
| state index | -0.58 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 116.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.54 |