← Premier League 2024-25 · Mon, May 5, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 44% | 45% | 2.19 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 28% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 42% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 58% | 2.01 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
| 59' | 🟨 | Matz Sels · Nott'm Forest |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
| 63' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 64' | ⚽ | Murillo · Nott'm Forest |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
| 74' | 🟨 | Neco Williams · Nott'm Forest |
| 77' | 🟨 | Daichi Kamada · Crystal Palace |
| 78' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ola Aina · Nott'm Forest |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ryan Yates |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edward Nketiah · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Morato · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 459.00 |
| 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1680.08 | 1675.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.74 | -20.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 45.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 4.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -0.86 |
| solidity v1 | -1.22 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 26.80 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 185.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 0.77 |