← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 41% | 51% | 2.34 | value: +20% |
| Liverpool win | 33% | 22% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.84 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Chelsea −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 64% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 36% | 2.71 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 51' | 🟨 | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 54' | 🟨 | Trevoh Chalobah · Chelsea |
| 56' | ⚽ (og) | Jarell Quansah · Chelsea |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jarell Quansah · Liverpool |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jadon Sancho · Chelsea |
| 85' | ⚽ | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.63 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 337.00 | 337.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.18 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1948.71 | 2124.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.14 | -4.14 |
| eye test v1 | 1.60 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 60.00 | 82.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 2.85 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 2.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.54 | 1.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 23.87 | 28.29 |
| state index | 1.34 | 1.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 286.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.90 |