← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 58% | 53% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.34 | value: +20% |
| Man United win | 20% | 19% | 4.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −1 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Brentford −1 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 58% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 42% | 2.56 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Mason Mount · Man United |
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Luke Shaw · Brentford |
| 33' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 43' | 🟨 | Manuel Ugarte · Man United |
| 51' | 🟨 | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 70' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 74' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 82' | ⚽ | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Amad Diallo · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.88 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Gtech Community Stadium |
| coach days | 2407.00 | 184.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1881.64 | 1871.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.57 | -2.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| league points | 49.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 2.77 | 2.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 1.30 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.66 | 26.29 |
| state index | 0.99 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 257.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 2.07 |