← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 40% | 51% | 2.45 | value: +26% |
| Southampton win | 33% | 26% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.61 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Leicester −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 51% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 49% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 44' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Leicester |
| 52' | 🟨 | Kamaldeen Sulemana · Southampton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lesley Ugochukwu · Southampton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Oliver Skipp · Leicester |
| 75' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 153.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1436.19 | 1360.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.92 | 0.99 |
| eye test v1 | -1.31 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| league points | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 0.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.20 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -2.42 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.64 | 25.99 |
| state index | -1.43 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 191.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |