← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 62% | 69% | 1.57 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
| Ipswich win | 16% | 14% | 6.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Everton −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 50% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 50% | 2.13 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Beto · Everton |
| 28' | 🟨 | Jake O'Brien · Everton |
| 28' | 🟨 | Liam Delap · Ipswich |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 35' | ⚽ | Dwight McNeil · Everton |
| 41' | ⚽ | Julio Enciso · Ipswich |
| 65' | 🟨 | Carlos Alcaraz · Everton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 79' | 🟨 | Vitaliy Mykolenko · Everton |
| 79' | ⚽ | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 80' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.10 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| 81' | 🟨 | George Hirst · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 122.00 | 1249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -8.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| elo | 1626.28 | 1439.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.29 | 9.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -1.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 38.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 30.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -18.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -1.63 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | -2.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 27.32 | 26.76 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 316.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 2.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 0.66 |