← Premier League 2024-25 · Thu, May 1, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 42% | 47% | 2.35 | value: +10% |
| Brentford win | 31% | 25% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.61 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford −0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 62% | 1.74 | value: +9% |
| Under | 45% | 38% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 11' | 🟨 | Keane Lewis-Potter · Brentford |
| 18' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · Nott'm Forest |
| 36' | 🟨 | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 42' | 🟨 | Christian Nørgaard · Brentford |
| 44' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 63' | 🟨 | Neco Williams · Nott'm Forest |
| 63' | 🟨 | Yehor Yarmoliuk · Brentford |
| 70' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Ajer · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 517.00 | 2404.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1694.48 | 1655.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.05 | 29.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| league points | 60.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 9.98 | 12.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | -0.75 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 25.58 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 171.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.21 |