← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 27, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 80% | 76% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 17% | 7.95 | value: +33% |
| Tottenham win | 7% | 7% | 13.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool −2 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Tottenham −2 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 69% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Tottenham |
| 16' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 24' | ⚽ | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
| 34' | 🟨 | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 34' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 63' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 69' | ⚽ (og) | Destiny Udogie · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harvey Elliott · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days |
| 330.00 |
| 666.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.49 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1922.97 | 1677.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.80 | -12.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.38 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| league points | 79.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.80 | 0.98 |
| solidity v1 | 1.21 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.73 | 25.33 |
| state index | 1.55 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 282.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.27 | 1.77 |