← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 49% | 67% | 1.98 | value: +32% ⚠ |
| Man United win | 26% | 16% | 3.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 3.93 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bournemouth −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 65% | 1.74 | value: +13% |
| Under | 45% | 35% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Tyler Adams · Bournemouth |
| 23' | ⚽ | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 57' | 🟨 | Patrick Dorgu · Man United |
| 63' | 🟨 | Dean Huijsen · Bournemouth |
| 65' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
| 70' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 70' | 🟥 | Evanilson · Bournemouth |
| 79' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 25 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days |
| 666.00 |
| 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1669.11 | 1686.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.52 | -8.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 49.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.92 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.45 | 24.54 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 304.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.48 |