← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 62% | 61% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.46 | value: +5% |
| Leicester win | 16% | 15% | 6.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Leicester −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Toti Gomes · Wolves |
| 33' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 48' | 🟨 | Wout Faes · Leicester |
| 56' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 61' | 🟨 | Kasey McAteer · Leicester |
| 65' | 🟨 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 81' | 🟨 | Oliver Skipp · Leicester |
| 85' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Gomes · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days |
| 146.00 |
| 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1608.96 | 1443.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 56.45 | -13.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| league points | 38.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 5.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -12.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 0.70 | -2.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 27.46 |
| state index | 0.84 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 66.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 2.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 0.69 |