← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 81% | 77% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 9% | 8.50 | fair |
| Ipswich win | 6% | 14% | 17.50 | value: +149% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −2 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Ipswich −2 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 66% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Ben Johnson · Ipswich |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ben Johnson · Ipswich |
| 37' | 🟥 | Ben Johnson · Ipswich |
| 44' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 44' | 🟨 | Liam Delap · Ipswich |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 56' | ⚽ | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jacob Greaves · Ipswich |
| 80' | ⚽ | William Osula · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 1272.00 | 1242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1745.73 | 1443.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.24 | 5.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 59.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -14.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | -1.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | -2.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.98 | 26.88 |
| state index | 1.13 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 372.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 2.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 0.73 |