β Premier League 2024-25 Β· Tue, Apr 22, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 51% | 55% | 1.91 | value: +6% |
| Aston Villa win | 25% | 21% | 3.96 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City β0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Aston Villa β0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 76% | 1.63 | value: +23% β |
| Under | 41% | 24% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | β½ | Bernardo Silva Β· Man City |
| 18' | β½ (pen) | Marcus Rashford Β· Aston Villa |
| 35' | π¨ | Lucas Digne Β· Aston Villa |
| 50' | π¨ | Morgan Rogers Β· Aston Villa |
| 70' | π¨ | JoΕ‘ko Gvardiol Β· Man City |
| 77' | π¨ | Matheus Nunes Β· Man City |
| 85' | π¨ | Ollie Watkins Β· Aston Villa |
| 86' | π¨ | Bernardo Silva Β· Man City |
| 90' | β½ | Matheus Nunes Β· Man City |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 3217.00 | 903.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 4.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| elo | 2071.26 | 1931.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.39 | 65.75 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | 1.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.10 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| league points | 58.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.85 | 0.94 |
| solidity v1 | 0.97 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 27.86 |
| state index | 1.71 | 1.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.50 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| travel km | β | 110.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 2.18 |