← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 38% | 43% | 2.55 | value: +9% |
| Newcastle win | 36% | 30% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Newcastle +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 44% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 13' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 18' | ⚽ | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 41' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 63' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 64' | ⚽ | Ian Maatsen · Aston Villa |
| 73' | ⚽ (og) | Dan Burn · Aston Villa |
| 75' | ⚽ | Amadou Onana · Aston Villa |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jacob Ramsey · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days |
| 900.00 |
| 1265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.03 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1718.75 | 1762.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.65 | 48.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.20 | 67.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| league points | 54.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | 0.56 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.16 | 28.96 |
| state index | 0.92 | 1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 274.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.96 |