← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 38% | 31% | 2.59 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 35% | 38% | 2.79 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.54 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Bournemouth +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Tyler Adams · Bournemouth |
| 25' | 🟨 | Alex Scott · Bournemouth |
| 29' | 🟨 | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟥 | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 47' | 🟨 | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 47' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
| 49' | 🟨 | Dango Ouattara · Bournemouth |
| 71' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 15 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days |
| 443.00 |
| 658.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1675.50 | 1667.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.07 | -19.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 43.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 2.81 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -1.18 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 25.62 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 142.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.86 |