← Premier League 2024-25 · Wed, Apr 16, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 57% | 65% | 1.68 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 3.99 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 19% | 15% | 5.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Crystal Palace −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 52% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 48% | 2.23 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Jacob Murphy · Newcastle |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Marc Guéhi · Newcastle |
| 45' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 45' | ⚽ | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 51' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Crystal Palace |
| 58' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
| 67' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 78' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 1262.00 | 440.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1749.07 | 1688.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.34 | 11.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 56.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 3.13 | 4.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.97 | 27.13 |
| state index | 1.05 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 410.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 2.17 |