← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 60% | 64% | 1.62 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.35 | fair |
| Man United win | 18% | 16% | 5.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Newcastle −1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Under | 41% | 37% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Manuel Ugarte · Man United |
| 24' | ⚽ | Sandro Tonali · Newcastle |
| 37' | ⚽ | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 43' | 🟨 | Leny Yoro · Man United |
| 49' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 64' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 77' | ⚽ | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 1259.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1945.62 | 1873.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.89 | 17.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| league points | 53.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 5.85 | 2.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.84 | 25.98 |
| state index | 1.33 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 173.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 1.76 |