← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +5% |
| Tottenham win | 31% | 31% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Wolves −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 58% | 1.82 | value: +5% |
| Under | 47% | 42% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 8' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Tottenham |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Djed Spence · Wolves |
| 59' | ⚽ | Mathys Tel · Tottenham |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
| 85' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Toti Gomes · Wolves |
| 86' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 133.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1577.13 | 1692.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.76 | -5.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 32.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 2.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 25.92 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 178.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.41 |