← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 80% | 71% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.50 | fair |
| Ipswich win | 7% | 17% | 13.76 | value: +137% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −2 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Chelsea −2 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 62% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 38% | 2.82 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Julio Enciso · Ipswich |
| 31' | ⚽ | Ben Johnson · Ipswich |
| 38' | 🟨 | Alex Palmer · Ipswich |
| 46' | ⚽ (og) | Axel Tuanzebe · Chelsea |
| 67' | 🟨 | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 79' | ⚽ | Jadon Sancho · Chelsea |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 34 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 15 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 316.00 | 1229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.70 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1776.92 | 1439.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.22 | -4.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| league points | 53.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 1.56 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.55 | 27.08 |
| state index | 1.35 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 111.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 2.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.06 |