← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 63% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.64 | fair |
| Southampton win | 15% | 19% | 6.25 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Southampton +1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 61% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 39% | 2.49 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · Southampton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 79' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Aston Villa |
| 87' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 88' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 25 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 14 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.86 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 11.00 |
| 893.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 4.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1363.35 | 1713.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.54 | 35.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.60 | 45.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| league points | 10.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.32 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -1.59 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.81 | 27.09 |
| state index | -1.27 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 181.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.66 |