← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 59% | 63% | 1.64 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.35 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 19% | 16% | 5.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −1 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Man City −1 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 65% | 1.67 | value: +9% |
| Under | 42% | 35% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
| 21' | ⚽ | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 31' | 🟨 | Daichi Kamada · Crystal Palace |
| 33' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 36' | ⚽ | Omar Marmoush · Man City |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nico González · Man City |
| 47' | ⚽ | Mateo Kovačić · Man City |
| 54' | 🟨 | Maxence Lacroix · Crystal Palace |
| 56' | ⚽ | James McAtee · Man City |
| 68' | 🟨 | James McAtee · Man City |
| 79' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| Nico O'Reilly · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3207.00 | 436.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1850.11 | 1696.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.65 | 37.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| league points | 52.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 5.83 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.06 | 26.91 |
| state index | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.29 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 272.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 2.07 |