← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 6, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 50% | 56% | 1.94 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.55 | fair |
| Fulham win | 23% | 23% | 4.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Liverpool +0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
| 23' | ⚽ | Ryan Sessegnon · Fulham |
| 32' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
| 37' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Muniz · Fulham |
| 46' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Fulham |
| 72' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 86' | 🟨 | Emile Smith Rowe · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernd Leno · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1375.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1871.80 | 2130.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.71 | 20.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| league points | 45.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 4.76 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 1.39 |
| solidity v1 | -0.21 | 1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.84 | 27.59 |
| state index | 0.62 | 2.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 285.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 2.08 |