← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 45% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 27% | 23% | 3.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.99 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 15' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Aston Villa |
| 49' | 🟨 | Morato · Nott'm Forest |
| 51' | 🟨 | Marco Asensio · Aston Villa |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jota Silva · Nott'm Forest |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jota Silva · Nott'm Forest |
| 86' | 🟨 | Emiliano Martínez · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 886.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.58 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1898.38 | 1914.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.59 | 27.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.80 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 2.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 48.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 2.91 | 3.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.90 |
| solidity v1 | -0.97 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 26.20 |
| state index | 1.15 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 69.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.98 |