← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 40% | 36% | 2.40 | fair |
| West Ham win | 32% | 34% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.55 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Bournemouth +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 58% | 1.87 | value: +9% |
| Under | 48% | 42% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 38' | ⚽ | Evanilson · Bournemouth |
| 60' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 61' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · West Ham |
| 68' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 78' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · West Ham |
| 79' | ⚽ | Evanilson · Bournemouth |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mohammed Kudus · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 94.00 | 644.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1800.71 | 1869.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.66 | -53.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 34.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.56 | 25.39 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.56 |