← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 36% | 43% | 2.70 | value: +16% |
| Ipswich win | 34% | 31% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Ipswich +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 40% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 60% | 2.31 | value: +38% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Liam Delap · Ipswich |
| 38' | 🟨 | Alex Palmer · Ipswich |
| 71' | 🟨 | André · Wolves |
| 72' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Wolves |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julio Enciso · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 1221.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1704.27 | 1777.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.48 | 24.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 20.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -1.32 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 27.75 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 230.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.12 |