← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 38% | 56% | 2.58 | value: +44% ⚠ |
| Brighton win | 34% | 25% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 19% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Brighton +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 60% | 1.90 | value: +14% |
| Under | 49% | 40% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 31' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 55' | ⚽ | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 69' | 🟨 | Edward Nketiah · Crystal Palace |
| 78' | 🟨 | Edward Nketiah · Crystal Palace |
| 78' | 🟥 | Edward Nketiah · Crystal Palace |
| 80' | 🟨 | Solly March · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marc Guéhi · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 429.00 |
| 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1688.82 | 1676.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.69 | 8.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| league points | 40.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| solidity v1 | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 24.39 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 59.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.29 | 2.17 |