← Premier League 2024-25 · Thu, Apr 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 57% | 51% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.46 | value: +31% |
| Tottenham win | 21% | 20% | 4.83 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Tottenham −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 77% | 1.47 | value: +13% |
| Under | 34% | 23% | 2.81 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Trevoh Chalobah · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 50' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 67' | 🟨 | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 80' | 🟨 | Pedro Neto · Chelsea |
| 86' | 🟨 | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Djed Spence · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brennan Johnson · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 306.00 | 642.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1938.34 | 1873.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.06 | -27.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 49.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 18.23 | 18.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | 1.62 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.78 | 25.47 |
| state index | 1.52 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 16.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.30 |