← Premier League 2024-25 · Wed, Apr 2, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 41% | 38% | 2.38 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 31% | 39% | 3.11 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Brighton −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 52% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 48% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jack Hinshelwood · Brighton |
| 51' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Aston Villa |
| 78' | ⚽ | Marco Asensio · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Axel Disasi · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emiliano Martínez · Aston Villa |
| 90' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | American Express Stadium |
| coach days | 305.00 | 883.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 4.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1900.39 | 1876.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 52.45 | 6.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 44.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| league points | 47.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 18.16 | 25.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | 0.82 |
| solidity v1 | 1.24 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.00 | 28.53 |
| state index | 1.71 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 221.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 2.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.28 | 1.42 |