← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 40% | 30% | 2.40 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 34% | 35% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 35% | 3.83 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Bournemouth +0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 73% | 1.51 | value: +10% |
| Under | 36% | 27% | 2.67 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 30' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 42' | ⚽ | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Tottenham |
| 65' | ⚽ | Evanilson · Bournemouth |
| 67' | ⚽ | Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham |
| 69' | 🟨 | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 86' | 🟨 | James Maddison · Tottenham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dean Huijsen · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 617.00 | 617.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1700.45 | 1686.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.62 | -12.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.80 |
| league points | 33.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 11.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 0.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.32 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.60 | 24.92 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.31 |