← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 87% | 89% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 8% | 11.50 | fair |
| Southampton win | 4% | 3% | 26.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −2.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Liverpool −2.75 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76% | 66% | 1.25 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 34% | 4.00 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Tsimikas · Liverpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
| 45' | ⚽ | Will Smallbone · Southampton |
| 51' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paul Onuachu · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days |
| 280.00 |
| 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1931.77 | 1367.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.04 | -6.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 47.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| league points | 67.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 9.78 | 10.78 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 1.01 | -2.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.05 | 25.24 |
| state index | 1.38 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 300.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.68 |