← Premier League 2024-25 · Tue, Feb 25, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 42% | 52% | 2.27 | value: +18% |
| Aston Villa win | 30% | 23% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 35' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 52' | ⚽ | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 59' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 71' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 82' | 🟨 | Leon Bailey · Aston Villa |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Edward Nketiah · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 390.00 | 847.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 4.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1883.80 | 1879.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.66 | -13.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 41.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 3.19 | 3.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 1.16 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 27.46 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 174.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.34 |