← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 37% | 37% | 2.65 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 36% | 45% | 2.68 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 27% | 18% | 3.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Chelsea +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 66% | 1.63 | value: +8% |
| Under | 41% | 34% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 56' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 57' | ⚽ | Marco Asensio · Aston Villa |
| 69' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 72' | 🟨 | Christopher Nkunku · Chelsea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 89' | ⚽ | Marco Asensio · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 844.00 | 266.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.24 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1869.66 | 1939.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.19 | -21.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.00 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| league points | 39.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 1.38 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.08 | 24.15 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 162.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.93 |