← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 46% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| Ipswich win | 28% | 32% | 3.42 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich +0.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Tottenham +0.5 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 65% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 35% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Brennan Johnson · Tottenham |
| 18' | ⚽ | Brennan Johnson · Tottenham |
| 26' | ⚽ | Brennan Johnson · Tottenham |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jack Clarke · Ipswich |
| 36' | ⚽ | Omari Hutchinson · Ipswich |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ben Godfrey · Ipswich |
| 77' | ⚽ | Djed Spence · Tottenham |
| 84' | ⚽ | Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.72 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 1179.00 | 602.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1452.74 | 1707.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.36 | 27.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 17.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | 0.85 |
| solidity v1 | -1.52 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 26.10 |
| state index | -1.27 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 97.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 1.55 |