← Premier League 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 21, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 49% | 47% | 1.99 | fair |
| Leicester win | 26% | 36% | 3.74 | value: +35% |
| Draw | 25% | 17% | 3.86 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester +0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Brentford +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 62% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 38% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 27' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 28' | 🟨 | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Leicester |
| 32' | ⚽ | Christian Nørgaard · Brentford |
| 42' | 🟨 | Woyo Coulibaly · Leicester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Caleb Okoli · Leicester |
| 67' | 🟨 | Facundo Buonanotte · Leicester |
| 89' | ⚽ | Fabio Carvalho · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 82.00 | 2335.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1481.03 | 1624.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.32 | 8.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| league points | 17.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.31 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.83 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 26.52 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 138.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.69 |