← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 78% | 80% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 7.10 | value: +8% |
| Wolves win | 8% | 5% | 12.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool −1.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Wolves −1.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 74% | 1.44 | value: +7% |
| Under | 34% | 26% | 2.87 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · Liverpool |
| 26' | 🟨 | Matt Doherty · Wolves |
| 31' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 39' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Agbadou · Wolves |
| 67' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 71' | 🟨 | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 260.00 | 77.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.41 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.45 |
| elo | 2108.14 | 1755.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.88 | -10.78 |
| eye test v1 | 1.43 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.68 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| league points | 57.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.77 | 14.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.59 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.94 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.71 | 28.04 |
| state index | 1.88 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 108.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 1.29 |