← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 64% | 66% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 4.79 | fair |
| Southampton win | 16% | 19% | 6.32 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +1.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Bournemouth +1.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 64% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 10' | 🟨 | Will Smallbone · Southampton |
| 14' | ⚽ | Dango Ouattara · Bournemouth |
| 16' | ⚽ | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
| 32' | 🟨 | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 72' | ⚽ | Kamaldeen Sulemana · Southampton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 83' | ⚽ | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 76.00 | 595.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 4.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1631.15 | 1916.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.35 | 39.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 9.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -3.19 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 25.24 |
| state index | -0.47 | 1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 36.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.88 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.71 |