← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 67% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.99 | value: +9% |
| Ipswich win | 14% | 13% | 7.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Ipswich −1.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 43% | 2.53 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Axel Tuanzebe · Ipswich |
| 40' | 🟨 | Axel Tuanzebe · Ipswich |
| 40' | 🟥 | Axel Tuanzebe · Ipswich |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jacob Greaves · Ipswich |
| 56' | ⚽ | Liam Delap · Ipswich |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kalvin Phillips · Ipswich |
| 69' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Omari Hutchinson · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 16 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.63 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.59 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 837.00 | 1172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1679.71 | 1445.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.06 | -25.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 37.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.25 | 25.26 |
| state index | 0.41 | -1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 212.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.90 |